March 20, 7:00 AM Weather Forecast Update

Meteorologist

A sunny and windy day ahead with heavy rain likely later in the week

(WLFI) – Good Monday morning and happy first day of spring! The vernal equinox will occur right at 5:24 PM. This is when the sun will be right over the equator!

It’s fairly chilly out this morning. Morning lows are in the mid to lower 20s area-wide with clear skies. Wind chill values are in the teens. Other than blue skies, some high-level clouds will be present above. Winds today will be gusting up to 30-40 mph out of the SW which will help get us up into the mid to upper 40s for today.

Tuesday

Tuesday morning will start out with low temperatures in the lower 30s and upper 20s. More clouds will begin to work in with overcast conditions likely by the afternoon and especially by the evening. Winds will remain out of the SW gusting 25-35 mph. Highs will be near normal, which is in the lower 50s.

We will have plenty of dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere which will help keep us dry up until late Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

Notice on the skew-T plot below at 5:00 PM Tuesday, the red line represents temperature (going up in the atmosphere), however the green line is the dew point. Notice a big gap between the two. This means it will take quite a bit of moisture to overcome the dry air. So… We will likely see virga or rain evaporating before it hits the ground. This typically looks like streaks falling from clouds.

Wednesday and Thursday

After midnight Wednesday morning, the rain will begin to move into the WLFI viewing area. Lows will only be in the lower 40s and upper 30s but then work up to the mid 50s in the afternoon.

Scattered showers will be likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. We may see a little break by the evening but then more rain works in for Thursday.

Due to increased cloud cover and scattered rain, Thursday morning’s temperatures will only be in the lower 50s. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 60s by late in the day as a stationary front will be right over our area which could bring us some very heavy rainfall.

However, several models have the placement of this stationary front in different places. The Euro and GEM have the front further to the south. The GFS has been more consistent with the stationary front being located in the heart of the WLFI viewing area. This could bring heavy/steady rain for Thursday and into early Friday morning for us. Tweaks to the forecast may be needed as we get fresh data closer to Wed-Fri as the position of the front will impact temperatures and rainfall amounts. Stay tuned!

7-Day Rainfall Accumulations

Model consensus from the ensemble GEFS shows roughly 1.5” to 2.75” of rain by next Monday, March 27th. The below image is from the Weather Prediction Center’s 7-Day outlook for rainfall accumulation. Again, the bulk of this rain will fall Thursday into Friday morning. Flooding may be of concern on major waterways as we close out the work week if this verifies.

10-Day Outlook

After the front passes on Friday, temperatures cool down for the rest of the day on Friday. Midday temperatures may only be in the 40s and falling. High pressure is briefly with us on Saturday with near-normal temperatures. Then we warm back up on Sunday as another low pressure system may work into the viewing area ushering in rain and then cooler temperatures and possibly some snow by next Monday.

Meteorologist